Next Season's Offense: How Optimistic Are You?

Chris · Status: Offline

Next Season's Offense: How Optimistic Are You?

Hog Fever · Status: Offline

The offense IS the million dollar question going into this season.

The O-line got old in a hurry. I know we can't address every position of need in the draft but we haven't paid any serious attention to the O-line in years other than a few mid round flyers. Last year it all caught up to us. Heyer has been a nice deveopmental guy but I don't count that as addressing the issue. None of the other draft picks from the past few years have seen the field much. The O-line makes every other offensive position better. The RBs have bigger holes, it gives our WRs more time to get open or downfield, and gives our QB more time to make decisions. I'm no GM and this seems obvious to me. Why have we let it go so long? I dont know. I doubt our offensive line is going to look much different from last season. I'd be (pleasantly) shocked if we took one of the top OTs in the draft but I doubt it happens though. If I had to guess I'd say we'll go LB in the first round instead. To think a 3^rd round OG or OT is going to come right in and start without a year or two to develop is asking a lot.

I don't think we have a problem at RB. I would question the wisdom of signing any RB to a deal longer than 3 or 4 years though. Don't get me wrong, I like what Portis can do, but he's signed though 2012 and it seems that in order to make cap space he restructures just about every year making him impossible to move or cut even if we wanted to. I'm not advocating moving him, I just hate to not have options. RB is probably the easiest skill position on the field to replace.

WR is a concern. I had hoped that the draft last year addressed that. I'm not ready to give up on either guy yet, but I'd like to see at least one of them show me something this year. Were they just “not ready”? I question wether they would have been any more of a liability that the guys we had on the field who, as you mentioned, simply couldn't get any seperation. I think we are stuck with seeing how the WRs develop this year as we can't become the Lions and draft WRs early every year.

Then we come to Campbell. I like the guy but at least to this point in his career he hasn't been able to take the next step and be consistantly “the man”. He's looked good at times, and tentative at times. He rarely does anything to lose the game outright, but rarely does anything to win it either. Like most folks I think this is going to be his last chance to prove he can QB this team. He can't just be ok either, he's going to have to be good to very good. Can he do it? I think at this point in his career what you see is what you get. So the short answer is probably not.

So how optomistic am I? Well, I'm not sure. O-line the same, WRs the same, QB the same. RBs the same. I could see it playing out the same way as last year: A good start to the season and a gradual decline as our old guys turn into old guys. The defense should be good and will keep us in a lot of games. Still, I see nothing to tell me that this is anything more than about an 8-8 team. Hope I'm wrong.

-- Edited by Hog Fever on Friday 27th of March 2009 03:43:57 PM

B&G · Status: Offline

Very nice post and some great questions.

I agree with you that Jason Campbell appeared indecisive and slow in this offense at times but it remains to be seen if that was a product of learning the new system or in a basic inability to make the very quick decisions required of a West Coast quarterback.

There's no question in my mind as to Jason's intelligence....by all accounts he seems very bright. His mechanics and inner clock may, however, represent a problem in the WCO which relies upon fast decisions and quick throws by the QB, along with short, quick, and precise routes by the receivers to stretch the offense and so open up running lanes for the backs. For those who play or watch golf, think of the very slow and rythmic delivery of Fred Couple's swing versus the fast and violent swing of Lanny Wadkins. From what I've seen, both Fred's and Lanny's swings perfectly match their personalities and lifestyle tempo. If you asked Fred to swing like Lanny, he could probably make it around the course (after all he is a pro) but I'm confident he wouldn't feel comfortable or play as well as he would with his own swing. Same thing for Lanny. If Jason is more like Fred in this analogy than Lanny, we may be in trouble this season.

If we start the season with Jon Jansen at RT, our OL will still struggle in pass pro on that side. Jon has been a great player for us and I love him but age and injuries have taken their toll. I don't think he's starter material any more and the jury's still out on Stephon Heyer. My best guess is that we will either draft an OT to play there or pick up a veteran with some gas left in the tank to serve as a stop-gap for one year. If Reinhart shows he can play and with Jansen and Heyer in reserve, we have quality depth for a change.

Our running game should be fine provided Clinton remains healthy and Coach Zorn frequently rests him throughout the season by letting Ladell rotate in more often.

As has been said so often by everyone, a real key to the offense this season are the three receivers we took in the 2nd round last year. They have to perform well to free up Santana and Cooley and with their size, must give Jason big reliable targets in the red zone. If they don't, we're back to square one in my view.

I'm cautiously optimistic about our team for the upcoming campaign. Our OL should be better if they can come together as a unit. I believe our young receivers and tight end will see a lot more of the field this year and will contribute more to our red zone offense, particularly if Kelly's knees don't become an issue. I'm really hopeful that the CFL guy of the former Denver RB will step up to help us in our punt return game and feel Suisham will settle down in the kicking game....still think his off year resulted from the change in holder. Don't know too much about the punters but we have to perform much better in that area. Everything is so close in the NFC east, often times special teams performance make the difference.

I want to be optimistic about Jason because he must perform at a higher level for us to have the success we want. Let's hope he steps up.

-- Edited by B&G on Friday 27th of March 2009 04:45:42 PM

Chris · Status: Offline

Well, okay then. The bar has been quickly set pretty high here. I can tell that I'm going to have to get used to more than one-line wonder responses to fit in 'round here. Well done, guys. :)

The key to me is, and will always be, the offensive line. I agree that the 'big uglies' upfront are the ones who can make it all go.

Today's NFL, more than ever, is a get to the qb at all costs league. The successful teams are the ones that can make the hyper-aggressive defenses pay for their impatience.

I like Jason Campbell, I do. And I want to see him do well in Washington wearing the burgundy and ~~black~~...err...gold. But, I don't think that he will ever be the type of qb who can win games on his own. The guys who can have always shown that kind of 'flash' early in their careers, and I've not seen that in Jason outside of several instances when he took off running and made something happen. But he can certainly be a competent qb in the NFL like the Flaccos, Collins, Penningtons, etc.

But, he will need help.

He will need a reasonable level of protection, a level that I don't feel he got last year. Bringing back Dockery is a positive but it won't be enough. Samuels is still a stud when healthy. Rabach is often over-matched. Jansen is, well, done. Whether Randy Thomas can regain his form from a couple of years ago is still in question. Ultimately, we have to look no further than the NYG d-line to see just how big a factor that unit will be.

Long story short; I think Campbell will be improved enough if protected adequately, I think the second year receivers will bring greater production, and I think the running game will return to form if given the room.

I'm placing the lion's share of the onus on the o-line and on Jim Zorn's ability to show that he too is able to improve his scheme in his second year.

-- Edited by Chris on Friday 27th of March 2009 05:35:15 PM

-- Edited by Chris on Friday 27th of March 2009 05:38:03 PM

Om · Status: Offline

You people are making me happy.

One thing I'll add is that the development of Jim Zorn, both as head coach and offensive coordinator, may be as big a factor as any in how the 2009 offense goes.

We'll likely see the biggest jump in his development in both capacities this year. Rookie head coaches always get a one year pass in my book--there's simply too much at play to have any real expectations. Same, to a lesser degree, for an OC installing a new system (in this case, a pretty radical departure from the previous four (hell, with the exception of Spurrier's two, eighty) years. In Zorn's case, it was an 'all of the above' situation.

Seen in that light, 8-8 really isn't that bad, even with the collapse at the end. It's not like they were getting blown out, they just ran out of steam and, as you all have already covered quite nicely, suffered from some real personnel issue on the line of scrimmage.

There's nothing to base this on, but I still have the same good feeling about Zorn long-term as I did last year. There's just something about him that smells of success to me. And what I'm hoping is that with a full year under his belt, actually knowing his players heading into camp, having gotten the rookie jitters and learning curve out of the way, knowing what his QUARTERBACK can and cannot do, having had a chance to tweak his offense to match his personnel, as opposed to the opposite, which he kind of had to do last year ... we'll see a noticable rise in the level of play. In execution, timing, confidence--across the board.

If we don't see that, the personnel issues will continue to place a glass ceiling on what this offense, and ultimately team, can expect to accomplish.

-- Edited by Om on Friday 27th of March 2009 06:07:58 PM

Miles Monroe · Status: Offline

I'm not very optimistic for one reason, our O-line. It all starts in the trenches as stated before. I think JC showed he can run the team quite well at the begining of the season when the line and Portis were fresh. AS the season progressed, the protection got down right bad, and the run blocking wasn't anything to write home to mama about.

While the recievers could have done a better job, plays weren't given the time to develop because the QB was running for his life. Portis isn't an every down back at this point IMO, but don't try telling him that. You'll get two weeks of coverage with him yacking at any media outlet he can find. You have a solid back up to spel him, and we need to see more of those fresh legs.

I hate to say it, but I think one of the biggest problems with the line is the coach. I love ol JB, but sometimes it seems that blind loyalty is what is keeping guys like Jansen on the field. We know what we have, and I much rather take a chance on an unknown with a little upside then sticking with guys you fully know will not make it through the season, and who's play has dropped off a great deal.

Boone · Status: Offline

I'll echo a lot of the same sentiments. The O-Line is a concern. I also feel Jansen is DONE and I think if he somehow manages to regain starter-status, that'll be a harbinger of bad tidings to come. We need some youth and power on the O-Line. If we don't improve our depth and promise there, I think we're in for another 'quick start - poor finish' kind of a season.

Another obvious point of agreement - we need a solid #2 and #3 WR. Will one of last year's youngsters step up (or perhaps, both)? I hope so.... Moss is capable of taking it to an entirely different level when he gets some help and can stay healthy. When the sole responsibility for stretching defenses falls on his shoulders, he isn't durable enough to flourish.

I like Zorn too. He's a gutsy mofo. I think his style is one that can inspire teams, and instill that same confidence in an organization. Its also a style that can alienate those same folks. I have no idea which direction it will take him. But I'll confess - I really like his honesty, no BS approach, and semi-arrogance. For a guy without a lick of NFL head coaching experience, I thought he had remarkable success last year and showed a lot of moxie - late season fade or not.

Jason Campbell? Well - I'll call my dear friend Om out a bit on him. I think he's a physically gifted QB and wonderful human being who simply lacks the 'it factor' to allow him to seize control of an offensive unit, take charge in critical situations, and develop the kind of consistency it takes to lead a perennial winner. I really have a hard time envisioning him leading us anywhere special. He feels a lot like Patrick Ramsey to me, a talented kid who we keep wanting to make excuses for, but who ultimately just isn't anything more than above average.

I know it sets one up for mockery, but I feel more excitement and promise watching a Colt Brennan in preseason than Jason in the midst of an NFC East regular season game. Honestly - I'm skeptical Zorn has any confidence in Campbell long-term, I think he's just hitched his wagon to the guy as the QB most likely to buy him some time in the short term. Should Brennan show promise, I could easily see him supplanting Campbell at the first sign of injury, just as Gibbs conveniently dumped Ramsey after a hard sack in favor of Brunell in the opener against Chicago a few years back.

I hope I'm wrong about JC. But I've spent a lot of years 'hoping' the latest incarnation of Redskins QB would be our saviour. I think Jason is a longshot to be that guy.

-- Edited by Boone on Friday 27th of March 2009 09:59:21 PM

-- Edited by Boone on Friday 27th of March 2009 10:03:41 PM

B&G · Status: Offline

Boone, it's sad but Campbell definitely lacks the fire and swagger I've seen in all the truly great pro quarterbacks over the years without exception. I don't think it's a coincidence that the best seemed to ooze that "je ne sais quoi". I hope Jason proves to be the exception.

I also believe we will go to Brennan by mid-season if Jason doesn't show improvement and we should, not because it's Colt Brennan in particular, but because we have to know if we have a QB going into the next season, as we will almost certainly not resign Campbell.

Interestingly, I remember John Madden saying in pre-season, along with some other compliments, that Brennan had "it". Wouldn't that be something if he was right? The pro-Colt group would be impossible! :)

-- Edited by B&G on Saturday 28th of March 2009 01:36:05 PM

Om · Status: Offline

Boone wrote:

Jason Campbell? Well - I'll call my dear friend Om out a bit on him. I think he's a physically gifted QB and wonderful human being who simply lacks the 'it factor' to allow him to seize control of an offensive unit, take charge in critical situations, and develop the kind of consistency it takes to lead a perennial winner. I really have a hard time envisioning him leading us anywhere special. He feels a lot like Patrick Ramsey to me, a talented kid who we keep wanting to make excuses for, but who ultimately just isn't anything more than above average.

I know it sets one up for mockery, but I feel more excitement and promise watching a Colt Brennan in preseason than Jason in the midst of an NFC East regular season game. Honestly - I'm skeptical Zorn has any confidence in Campbell long-term, I think he's just hitched his wagon to the guy as the QB most likely to buy him some time in the short term. Should Brennan show promise, I could easily see him supplanting Campbell at the first sign of injury, just as Gibbs conveniently dumped Ramsey after a hard sack in favor of Brunell in the opener against Chicago a few years back.

I hope I'm wrong about JC. But I've spent a lot of years 'hoping' the latest incarnation of Redskins QB would be our saviour. I think Jason is a longshot to be that guy.

Before the Pittsburgh game last season, I'd have taken the bait on that one.

To me, Jason had two crossroad games last year ... the New Orleans game in week 2 on the heels of the clunker up in NY to start the year, and the Steelers in week 9.

I may have written about both. aww

He passed the first with that stunning turnaroud late, hitting Moss over the top to spark the Skins in the 4th quarter for the comeback win that launched the 6-2 start. The way he played during that stretch had me thinking he was finally delivering on all the praise I'd heaped on him for three years. He looked confident, in charge, and his teammates were rallying around him.

Then came the Steeler game ... and he seemed to hit the wall. Granted he didn't get much help up front, but it was THE perfect stage for him to take his game to the next level; to take the team on his back and finally lay claim to the position of Starting QB of the Washington Redskins ... and I thought he shrank from it.

Haven't seen the swagger of the first eight games since.

So the way I see it now, he's got maybe half of 2009 to show he's the guy we saw in the first half of 2008, not the second. And that's probably about as much as Zorn is going to be willing to wait as well. Can't say I'm very confident about the chances of his turning it back around and taking off ... but I haven't given up on him either.

Eight games and I'll know.

-- Edited by Om on Friday 27th of March 2009 10:57:11 PM

Riggo-toni · Status: Offline

I must admit I'm in the pessimist crowd. I think the Haynesworth signing may in some ways signify that the team is resigned to utilizing JC as a game manager, and hoping that our D will be stout enough to turn us into the next Y2K Ravens, or at least the 2008 Titans. Only thing is, if our offense sputters as severely as it did at the end of last year, it will take an enormous toll on our D in general, and probably on Haynesworth in particular. An overabundance of 3 and outs will wear those guys out.
To me, Gibbs picked Campbell because he was nostalgic for the 1991 Skins. Like Ryp, Campbell has nice touch on the deep balls, but his accuracy falters in the short to midrange stuff...which in today's NFL is the bread and butter of most offenses, especially the WCO.
I was not surprised nor overly disappointed by our rookie WRs last year. Eddie Royals and Anquan Boldins aside, most gus don't blossom until their 3rd year. As long as we see some production out of Thomas and Kelly this year, I'll be looking forward to 2010.

stevenaa · Status: Offline

I honestly don't know how I feel about the season yet. It usually takes the draft to really get me in mode for football. The O'line has to be better, obviously. I like Zorn and get the vibe he's a keeper. I like his moxy and I think he has the football smarts. He was a bit hamstrung with JC. I don't see any real way he comes in here and doesn't start him. Sometimes you have to play the cards you're dealt. I'd guess with Colt having a year in the system, JC will have a fairly short leash. I think 1/2 a year is generous. If he's not displaying marked improvement and commanding the field, I expect to see him out at 4 games. Heck, if he's struggling in preseason he might not get 4 games. There isn't time for any more excuses. He's either the answer and will be from the get go this year, or he never will be.

Califan007 · Status: Offline

Holy moly...well thought-out posts and cohesive statements concerning the Redskins. I had almost forgot it was possible lol :)...

I'll need at least one night's worth of sleep and a bowl of Wheeties before I can begin to contribute to the level that I'm witnessing here. But the short answer is I'm very optimistic for no particular reason or reasons. Perhaps it's having Dock back on the O-line and an eternal optimism that Jansen can return at least somewhat to form. It might also be how well Campbell played for the first 8 weeks of the season, and the idea that he can duplicate that performance and keep it going into week 16 this time. Or maybe it's seeing Portis truly live up to his potential during the first 8-9 weeks, and the idea that a healthier, (slightly) younger O-line might allow him to keep dominating into the home stretch this season. And it could simply be the still-held belief that Devin Thomas and MalcoMb (heh) Kelly will start to live up to their draft status (if not higher)...and that Heyer will benefit from having three years of experience, while Rinehart will get past whatever obstacle was holding him back last year and become at LEAST a viable back-up on the OLine.

It could also be a gut sense that Zorn played it too close to the vest last year as the losses started mounting and as he saw the playoffs starting to slip away, combined with just the natural learning curve for a first year head coach, that helped lead to some less than impressive offensive results at the end of the season.

Obviously having all of these things pan out is pretty unlikely. But having NONE of these things pan out is just as unlikely.