Hoping For Failure

Yusuf06 · Status: Offline

Hoping For Failure

Chris · Status: Offline

Unfortunately owners never get fired.

And our owner's delight in attention-getting transactions is personality based. It just has to be, doesn't it?

So, ultimately, the chances of what you wish for happening are less than slim and none.

They're simply none.

If Vinny isn't the co-conspirator than Dan will just pay for another to take his place. Our best hope may well be that they make a deal to land Sanchez and it works.

It may be that only a great qb can save Snyder from Snyder.

KB24 · Status: Offline

I want to see this team win and win big. But, Yusuf, you've got a good point. The only problem is even if that epic failure does happen, the Redskins will still sell out their games and Snyder will still make his money. The only thing that will save Snyder from Snyder is if people stop going to the games and he takes a bath on a half-empty stadium. Until then, it's going to be the same old crap.

Hog Fever · Status: Offline

I understand your feelings. I try to think to myself that if they were to just lay a big enough egg that Dan would wake up, hire a real GM and we could then start building the winning team that we all want. I just can’t bring myself to wish for it though. I’ll always find myself in front of the TV or in the stands pulling for them to win.

I don’t know Vinny Cerrato personally. He might be a great guy and probably knows football better than I do. That said, Matt Millen knows football better than I do too and he didn’t cut it as a GM (or president of football operations or whatever you want to call it). When Marty came in the first thing he did was tell Vinny to hit the bricks. Joe worked with him because personnel stuff s not his thing.

I want to like Dan Snyder, honestly I do. I have defended him numerous times in the past. I just don’t like what I see from him at times. No doubt he knows how to make money. It’s also no doubt that he’s willing to spend money for players. That will always keep us from becoming the Lions or the Bengals. I think the fact that we always seem to be “close” gives Dan the idea that things only need a tweak here or there rather than blowing it all up and starting over.

Om · Status: Offline

I'd be willing to bet there's not a single long-time Redskins fan who hasn't at least had the same thought in the privacy of their own mind, Yusuf. Part of it is the accumulated weight of all the moves that didn't work out, seen against the backdrop of continued mediocrity and constant snickers from the rest of the NFL world ... and part of it is that this run of mediocre football came on the heels of the greatest run in franchise history and one that put the Redskins on the short list of "great" teams of the modern era for more than a decade.

Had we not had that magical run under Gibbs I, what we're going through now---average NFL football---wouldn't likely be as painful.

Honestly, I'm not sure Cerrato/Snyder are that much worse than a lot of other front offices in the league. They've had their hits, they've had their misses. They haven't helped themselves by struggling to hit and settle on a philosophy for what kind of team they want to be (ground and pound under Schotty, fun and gun under Spurrier, back to the future under Gibbs II and now modified WCO under Zorn in just 10 years), but I'm not sure even that sets them that far behind a lot of other teams.

I hate to keep harping on it, but the one place they--and the franchise--have epically failed is in finding the one player you have to have to rise and stay above the average---a QB. Ever since whiffing on Shuler with the #3 pick in '94 (think about it--he turns out to be Drew Brees, history plays out very differently indeed), they have struggled to find someone to build an offense around. And like more than half the teams in the league, through a combination of bad luck and probably some bad choices, they have been unable to get that guy in the fold.

Until they do, I'm convinced they'll continue to be exactly what they are now--and average NFL football team with some great parts, but lacking the one final key ingredient that turns a pile of veggies, meat and spices into a gourmet meal.

I try not to judge regimes--be they owners, GM's, coaches--until I've had a chance to see them operate with a legitimate NFL QB. And I know I differ from many on this point, but I also don't hold the GM's too accountable for the inability to land that QB. I've said it a hundred times, there are only three ways to get one:

1) suck bad enough to draft high enough to luck into a Manning in a year you happen to pick #1. As painful as it's been around here, we haven't been that bad.

2) have one fall from the sky like Tom Brady did in NE with a flyer late-round pick

3) have some flukish set of circumstances come about like NO did with Brees (he doesn't get hurt in SD, the Charges never draft Rivers and Brees is still the man there) and maybe Chicago now has with Cutler.

We may never know how good or bad "Snyderrato" could be in the same situation the Pats did after Brady showed up, or the Colts did after Manning, or like the Eagles (almost) did after McNabb, or the 49ers did after Montana, or ...

Seriously. What if they do somehow land Sanchez, and he turns out to be a Hall of Famer and takes the Redskins on a 12-year run like the one we had under Gibbs? Does history look back and give Cerrato and Snyder credit for their part in bringing him here, or just call them lucky?

-- Edited by Om on Tuesday 21st of April 2009 07:59:08 AM

Hog Fever · Status: Offline

I definitely see you points. Players and great QBs in particular make coaches and organizations look smarter than they might otherwise be. Mel Kipper made a good point the other day when he was talking about Matt Stafford. He was asked what the bust potential of Stafford was. He responded by saying that the coachers don’t get enough of the blame when QBs are drafted highly and don’t pan out. After all, they “have all the tools”. I think this has some merit.

Let’s take a quick look at the Patriots (since they are everyone’s poster child). Tom Brady was drafted in the 6th round. Matt Cassel was drafted in the 7th round. Once might be luck, twice starts to look like they know what they’re doing. No doubt Cassel is going to have a much harder time in KC than he had in NE but there isn’t much question in NFL circles that he can play now. Scott Pioli is convinced. If he becomes Scott Mitchell Pioli will look like an idiot and probably be out of his job. The Skins along with every other NFL team we missed out on these two guys. The million dollar question becomes how could they have been so right and the rest of the NFL been so wrong? Are they looking at things the rest of the league isn’t, or was it just lucky….twice?

I wonder if teams do a Post Mortem report of sorts on why draft picks fail to live up to expectations? My guess is they would, but I can’t be 100% sure that happens. It seems like it would be a useful piece of information. Why did Heath Shuler fail? Yeah, I know, “he sucked”, but why did he suck? What part of the equation did we miss? I’m way out in left field now so I’ll stop.

Om · Status: Offline

I'm not quite ready to put Matt Cassell and Tom Brady in the same sentence quite yet. Okay, except for that once.

Far as I'm concerned, Cassell's career starts when he takes the field for the Chiefs for the first time this fall. No doubt he surprised a few people last year, myself included, but he also stepped into the best going-concern of an offense in NFL history. Let's not forget that offense not only set the all-time scoring record the year before, but was also one freakishly miraculous NYG catch late in the SB from a perfect season. There was a certain institutional momentum going there that I would argue played no small part in Cassell's success.

Not trying to take anything away from the man, just making the point that at least in my book Pioli hit the lottery once, and the jury's out on number two. It might also be interesting to see if Pioli has selected any other QB's late in the draft in his career ...

By the way, I'm not suggesting some personnel guys aren't better at their profession than others, just that it's not as black and white as I think a lot of observers like to make it. I also think being lucky or good enough to get the franchise QB to build a team around plays a disproportionately large role in helping creating a guys reputation.

As to Shuler, the thing I've always remembered was a comment from one of the local beat reporters a few days after he was drafted. Shuler had just finished a conference call with a bunch of reporters, and this guy recalled turning to another reporter who'd been on the call as well and saying, "they just drafted Gomer Pyle."

I think Heath had the physical tools, just not the football mind.

-- Edited by Om on Tuesday 21st of April 2009 02:04:19 PM

Hog Fever · Status: Offline

It's true that your assessment is more accurate than mine, but I thought Cassel was fairly impressive in his starts, although I'll admit I didn't watch all of their games last season. There was a lot of speculation (and I thought it was crazy) during last season and afterwards about the Pats keeping Cassel over Brady. To be fair most of it was over lingering injury concerns but I remember the conversations taking place.

While it's true that Brady and Cassel shouldn't be mentioned in the same sentence at this stage there is one thing that is certain, they turned a 7th round pick into a 2nd round pick. They may have gotten even more if they hadn't clearly been throwing Pioli a bone as a former front office guy.

As to the Shuler pick, I guess that's why he went into politics after football.

Yusuf06 · Status: Offline

Om wrote:

I'd be willing to bet there's not a single long-time Redskins fan who hasn't at least had the same thought in the privacy of their own mind, Yusuf. Part of it is the accumulated weight of all the moves that didn't work out, seen against the backdrop of continued mediocrity and constant snickers from the rest of the NFL world ... and part of it is that this run of mediocre football came on the heels of the greatest run in franchise history and one that put the Redskins on the short list of "great" teams of the modern era for more than a decade.

Had we not had that magical run under Gibbs I, what we're going through now---average NFL football---wouldn't likely be as painful.

And therein lies the rub. We really haven't been average under Snyder. We've been mediocre.

I'm a fairly realistic fan. I fully understand that there will always be a handful of NFL teams fortunate and/or smart enough to have a franchise QB while the rest look in from the outside. However, reasonably competently run teams like the Steelers, Gnats, Panthros, Jags and Ratbirds find a way to be competitive even when they don't have a franchise QB, and win SBs when they do. Since we've been on the outside of the franchise QB window looking in for all of Snyderatto's run, I can't fault him for not winning a SB yet. However, I do fault him for fielding mediocre teams during most of his tenure as owner. Any NFL F.O. worth it's salt ought to be able to field a team that wins more than 45% of their games over seven years (that is, not counting Gibbs 2.0).

Again, Snyder simply doesn't know what he's doing and Cerrato isn't much better. The sooner Snyder realizes AND accepts that fact, the sooner we can expect to have a reasonable chance at having a consistently contending team in D.C....OK, Raljon. biggrin

Om · Status: Offline

There I have no argument, Yusuf. I put that in a piece a couple weeks ago ... the idea that given their build-from-the-outside-in philosophy and the damage already done, at this point the ONLY way I see the current FO getting bailed out and turning this thing around any time soon is lucking into a "franchise QB."

Hope it doesn't sound like I'm defending the job the Redskins personnel team has done the past few years, because I'm not. More just trying to make the point that things would probably look a whole lot different if we had The Man behind center. When you can't run with the big dogs at the line of scrimmage, you better have a QB who can 1) make his own line look good by getting the ball out quick and accurate, and 2) make the other teams' D pay for crowding the line by being able to connect downfield a forcing them to back off.

The Redskins haven't been able to do either consistently for a very long time.

-- Edited by Om on Wednesday 22nd of April 2009 08:36:10 AM

KB24 · Status: Offline

While I don't think anyone on here really wants to see the Redskins fail, per se, one thing that I dare say that has set in among many Redskins fans is apathy. Personally, knowing that the front office has fouled up so many things that have impacted the on-field product, I'm at a point where I don't get as excited about this team as I used to. Oh, I'll still watch on Sundays and, most likely, I'll be at the Draft Day Party this weekend. But, my expectations are much lower because of the way Danny & Vinny have operated in the past and continue to operate to this point. I know I've said it before, but there's just too much emphasis on the "superstars" who will sell jerseys and create buzz, and not enough on buidling a solid foundation in the form of lower-round draft picks upon which those so-called superstars can really perform. Until a football-savvy, knowledgeable GM is brought in to run the organization and Danny gets his hands out of the on-field product -- which he's proven to know very little about -- the best we can expect is 8-8 and 9-7 records with playoff appearances here and there.

Jimster · Status: Offline

Om wrote:

As to Shuler, the thing I've always remembered was a comment from one of the local beat reporters a few days after he was drafted. Shuler had just finished a conference call with a bunch of reporters, and this guy recalled turning to another reporter who'd been on the call as well and saying, "they just drafted Gomer Pyle."

-- Edited by Om on Tuesday 21st of April 2009 02:04:19 PM

I wonder what those same reporters would have said about Phillip Rivers coming out of college.

I think it's hilarious when people point to the Patriots to prove how awesome of a front office they have. I mean they purposely waited until the 6th round to draft their franchise QB. Seriously? Number one, if they knew or even hoped he was all that, you think they would have waited until the 6th round to draft him? Number two, Bellichek even admitted before the 2003 Superbowl that they were targeting Tim Rattay with that pick, but settled for Brady when San Fran took Rattay. So like Om said, he fell into their laps.

The Pats do well drafting defensive players, and gasp, sign free agents and trade picks for many of their offensive play-makers.

I notice many like to say "All Snyder has to do is hire a competent GM." - There's 2 dozen teams in the NFL that want to do that. Apparently that's not as easy as saying it, and there's much more to it then that to field consistently winning teams.

I posted this stat at the "other" place. - in '89 San Diego hired Bobby Beathard. A "competent" GM. San Diego gave him full control. He hired his own coaches, drafted and traded for his own players. It was his team.

- Bobby Beathard in San Diego in 11 seasons had 5 different head coaches, 3 winning seasons and a winning percentage of .426

Since Snyder has owned the team in 10 seasons, we have had 5 different head coaches, 3 winning seasons and a winning percentage of .475 in a much more competitive divison.

It takes a competent FO, a competent head coach, a competent coaching staff, a competent scouting staff, that can all manage to work together. And if all goes right, that'll all show results via wins.

We need to find that right coach as much as anything. We may have him, we may not. If we do, maybe this FO isn't as bad as many like to parrot, that it's the worst ever. The worst teams over the last couple of decades have had GM's.

It seems to me that the consitent winners, are those teams who find the right coaches, and everything else trickles down.

Hoping for failure?

-- Edited by Jimster on Wednesday 22nd of April 2009 09:19:00 PM